Some disturbing alarms bells have started ringing in the Pacific Northwest, and they have eerie similarities to two highly destructive years.
The alarm bells that potentially herald the arrival of similar heat-induced phenomena include the return of El Niño, which is predicted to be very strong, above-average ocean temperatures in and south of California, and the recent catch of a record-setting marlin near Ilwaco, Washington. Audubon Washington recently reported that although ocean temperatures off Washington state remain close to normal, this year's bird die-offs in the hot waters from California to Ecuador demonstrate what could happen in the Pacific Northwest if the water here starts to heat up as well. The marlin that was caught off Ilwaco suggests that such warmer water might be on the way. Marlin are warm-water species that rarely venture this far north. In fact, the first marlin ever caught in Washington waters was in 1997 as El Niño ramped up for its 1998 onslaught. Before this year's marlin set a new record, the previous record had been established in the fall of 2005, just as another El Niño took hold (summer 2006 was another extremely hot and dry affair).
Nothing is set in stone, and the conditions of 1998 and 2015 have not yet returned to the Pacific Northwest. However, the signs that summer 2027 will deliver more extreme heat and drought are mounting, and the trend is troubling.
As I reflect on the heat, drought, and die-offs of previous summers, the alarms bells ringing now leave me with feelings of dread and sadness.
